Thorsten Meyer analyzes Jack Clark’s recent essay revealing a bivalent forecast for AI development, with significant implications for the field.
The Ghost Story Became a Forecast.
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359 posts
EuroHPC. The compute substrate.
Analysis of EuroHPC’s compute substrate, its current capabilities, structural limitations, and implications for Europe’s AI ambitions amid ongoing projects and investments.
Q3 2026 SaaS Earnings Pre-Brief: The Litmus Test for the Agentic-Disruption Thesis
Preliminary analysis of Q3 2026 SaaS earnings indicates whether the agentic-disruption thesis is confirmed or challenged, impacting SaaS valuation and strategy.
Forward-Deployed Engineer Economics 2.0: The Unit Economics Math, Six Months Later
Six months after initial analysis, the unit economics of FDEs reveal profitability at scale but risks at lower tiers, impacting enterprise AI deployment strategies.
Aleph Alpha. The retrospective case.
Analyzing Aleph Alpha’s strategic pivot, acquisition, and what it reveals about Europe’s AI capabilities and resource challenges.
Engineering Is Automated. Research Is the Residual.
Recent benchmarks show AI has achieved near-human levels in core engineering tasks, raising questions about the future role of human research in AI development.
Software engineering. The canonical case.
Empirical evidence shows junior developers face significant displacement, while senior engineers benefit from augmentation. The sector reveals a bifurcated impact of AI.
OpenEuroLLM. The third path.
OpenEuroLLM, a pan-European consortium, aims to develop multilingual large language models, but faces significant compute resource challenges, revealing limitations of current strategies.
Mistral. The fourth path.
Mistral raises $830M, becomes Europe’s top venture-funded AI firm, but still trails US models in reasoning capabilities. Key developments as of May 2026.
The Forecast Is the Plan.
Major AI labs publicly commit to automating AI R&D by 2026, signaling a strategic shift that could reshape the industry and workforce.
